Why patience is a virtue in markets

No one was expecting such a sharp fall in such a short span of time. Most markets are at 4 years lows from all time highs in a span of 2 weeks. When the going is good, we aren’t prepared to protect the capital. Also, people fail to have an exit strategy for SIP investments and it isn’t a foolproof strategy as well.  Every method should have an entry and exit strategy.

This was my message to my clients on 13th Nov.
——
Good Morning everyone.

Markets are touching all time highs on one side and the economy on the other hand seems to be slowing down globally. Policy makers are trying to be pro active with lower interest rates which might help with the liquidity. With the holiday season and all time highs, would prefer to book some profits and stay conservative till end of the year as I feel some of the fund houses could book some profits as well before the year end. So my suggested portfolio till New Year

Aia regional fixed income fund - 70%
Aia India balanced fund - 10%
Aia Acorns Asia fund - 10%
Aia US equity fund - 10%.
—-

Some sample portfolios on 10th Mar when I sent out bi monthly updates.

Market has fallen another 10% since then but most portfolios are down around 3-4%. Avoid one big fall in your portfolio and it will make a huge difference in the Long term returns.

It’s difficult to time the markets. If we had avoided the 30% fall, it’s probably time to start getting into equities slowly. Market tends to overreact both on the upside and downside, let’s hope now it’s more on the downside like it was on the upside two weeks ago.

Happy Investing

Invest your SRS through specialist!

This year has started on a completely different note compared to 2016. Last Jan, markets caught everyone by surprise with the huge fall and it has probably caught everyone by surprise this year on the upside, considering the global uncertainties. I personally feel surprised, as written here, with the overall optimism in the markets and expect the first half to be comparatively better than second half. So my suggestion would be to consider your SRS investments for the year now and stay conservative as you head into second half. 

** As you could see in the table above, investment returns are enhanced by the tax savings.

Features :

• Tax rebates on SRS investments helps to maximise your investment returns
• Tax rebates provides huge margin of safety on your investments
• Phased withdrawal post-retirement could mean you could withdraw without paying any tax later
• Flexible Investment option
• Investment flexibility on different geographies

Why should you invest through me:

• I specialise in SRS investments with an experience of servicing clients for more than 7 years
• Regular updates on the investment status
• Suggestions on market outlook and switching of funds based on economic conditions and market levels

Act NOW to take advantage of this rally and enhance your investment returns.

Please feel free to call or register here for a free consultation. 

Best Regards,

Partha
(+65 81133272)

Greed, Fear and Uncertainties

My investment idol, Peter Lynch, talks about "The cocktail theory" and 4 stages to understand the market sentiment. I always believed investment is just understanding those 4 stages and act accordingly. I simplified my investment rationale based on "The cocktail theory" as follows

1. Greed
2. Fear
3. Uncertainties.

The art part is to identify the actual stage and exercise some prudence depending on the stage to be successful.

Greed:

In the words of Buffett "Be fearful when others are greedy". At the same time, In Keynes words, "Market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent". So the key aspect at these level is those three magical words Margin of safety. Place a greater emphasis on the margin of safety both for individual stocks or mutual funds.

Feb 2015 could be one instance when the greed took over the markets and went up way ahead of the fundamentals.

Fear: 

The second part of Buffett's quote on fear says "Be greedy when others are fearful". My mind goes back almost 11 months ago when Nifty levels dropped to almost 6800 and most of the global indices were down 15%. I felt It was time to be greedy and those who entered around those levels would be sitting on decent returns in spite of the recent sell off in emerging markets post the US elections.

Uncertainties:

This, I believe, is the most difficult stage to understand and also the zone where market stays much longer than Greed and Fear. The good thing is the entry and exit opportunities are much more than the other two stages. I call this uncertain because of the lack of visibility going forward and the influential factors which could have a significant impact on the overall markets. It's extremely important to understand the risk-reward ratio while working out a strategy during this stage. Some uncertainties offers huge risk to reward ratio and others, low or negligible.

Oct 2016 : Markets have been rallying almost one way from the Feb lows and there was a huge uncertainty going into the US election. I felt the risk to reward was high, considering the huge rally from Feb including Fixed Income Funds. So the suggestion was to be prudent, book some profits and stay on the sidelines till some clarity emerges. Post the elections, most of the markets, including bonds, had a decent correction except for the US markets.

22nd Nov 2016 : The day after the inauguration of Mr. Donald Trump, as the US president, I feel we are in a similar situation, But, I am a bit baffled by the optimism in markets with most emerging markets are up at least 5% from their recent lows and the US markets very close to its all time highs. The risk-reward is clearly unfavourable to handle any negative surprises. I also believe some of the job creation and protectionist measures would come at a price and would most likely hit the bottom-line of the US companies.

How do you prepare for the unexpected – it’s unexpected? 

If the first 24 hours are anything to go by, there are many known unknown in terms of policy changes, job creations, H1B policies or tax proposals. There are unknown unknowns like the effect and scale of the anti-establishment protests. So my suggestion is to allocate 30% into equity and set aside 70% in Fixed income/money market funds, wait till some certainty emerges over the next few months and avoid getting caught in the middle of a deep correction. My biggest fear is what if Dow has already scaled its high for the next few years?  It's time to place importance that three magical words "Margin of Safety".

Good luck and happy investing.

Value Investing - My Thoughts and Approaches

Background:

• I started my corporate career as an IT Programmer and ended as an IT Infrastructure Project Manager as I decided to do something I'm passionate about

• I have been actively involved in markets since 2002 and strongly believe in Fundamental Analysis of stocks and approaches of great value investors like Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch

• I felt the valuations were extremely expensive and exited completely in end 2007 before the crash  and of course missed the subsequent rally as I wasn't comfortable with the overall fundamentals

• I suggested partial profit booking same time last year as well, as there was a fundamental disconnect between the earnings and valuations

• For the first time since 2008, I have started creating a portfolio for the long term since October 2015, because of the attractive valuations and the intentions of the Indian government in structural reforms

Just a disclaimer, the stock selections are purely my own and I am not licensed to offer stock recommendations.

Art of Investing and Markets:

I believe Investing is an art with a bit of science. Art part comes in understanding of the business, industry , future predictions and so on.  Also, different markets require different metrics for getting the right valuations. India is more of a growth story and stock appreciation, whereas Singapore is more of stable growth rate with decent dividend yields. The art in understanding the price to pay for, what we believe is decent returns. It took few years to understand the Singapore markets.

Metrics:

• As you are aware, value investing requires different metrics for different sectors and stocks. There are so many factors which determine those

• Some of the factors I use include P/E, P/B, D/E , Market Cap which is the science part and almost everyone uses them. I too use this as a reference

I also use PEG ratio on stocks which has delivered sustainable consistent growth with management quality

• I try to identify the larger themes and on board the journey as soon as possible and enjoy the journey during the big growth phase. One eg is identifying Havells at the beginning of their CFL boom and how they expanded into domestic appliances. The same with BPCL when the pricing was adjusted to markets and the fall in oil prices helped recover their marketing losses

• Currently, I am concentrating on the much beaten down power sector as I believe there are many multi-baggers sitting there if we believe in the good works of power minister Piyush Goyal

Past Recommendations/Views:

• I wrote on the importance of Margin of safety, especially when the markets were defying fundamentals. Nifty was 7300 when I wrote the need for caution and nifty is higher only by 4%, but as you could see the sample portfolio with those 4 stocks I had given has out-performed significantly

• When the fear was at the peak, I did suggest some stock recommendations with entry price here. Again, these have given excellent returns from those levels.

Reasons for Recommendation:

I shall share some thoughts on some of the Indian stock recommendations I made. I am also attaching the screenshots of my recommendations. I would like to keep it simple and stick to my circle of competence without bothering about the size of the circle.

IndusInd Bank (Recommended Price on 11th Feb Rs 810 ; CMP  Rs 986) :

IndusInd bank numbers are the dream for any fundamental value investors. They are doing what HDFC did 15 years ago, growing at a CAGR of 25% for the last 5 years. I was comfortable with the valuation of 25 times as I felt the growth is sustainable, considering the improvement in commercial vehicles segment and potential economic recovery. They are likely to end the year with Rs 41-42 per share and at Rs 810, am getting a company at 20 times, which will grow at 25 times. Even if the growth drops to 20%, there is still a potential 20% gains from current levels. There is huge margin of safety as they are likely to end up with Rs 50 per share for the next year which is only 15 times next year forward earnings. 

Larsen & Toubro (Recommended Price on 22nd Feb Rs 1150; CMP 1238) :

There has been a huge thrust on Infra development, though the words have not completely transformed into actions by the Govt. The stock has corrected almost 40% from almost 1900 levels. Consolidated EPS for last year was 51 and assuming they do the same for this year, it's available at 20 times. Stocks like LNT , HDFC will never be available at such valuations when everything is going fine. Also, the basic understanding is that India's economic reform can't progress without LNT being part of it and I thought it offers huge Margin of safety even assuming the order growth is muted

ICICI (Recommended Price on 22nd Feb Rs 198 and first around 240 post the correction; CMP 240) :

I don't believe in timing the markets; focus only on the valuations and the predictability of future growth. ICICI corrected to almost 12 times TTM at around 240 levels, which I felt was a good entry level for one of the leading private banks, I was personally very disappointed with the NPA of ICICI in the 3rd quarter, especially when you compare the likes of HDFCB and IndusInd and also considering their huge retail exposure. They reported Gross NPA of 5% which was almost PSU banks levels and quite rightly market hammered the stock post the results and also compounded by the overall sentiment. In spite of the huge NPA, Net Profits was still up for the first 9 months. They did Rs.22 per share last year.  You are getting one of the top private banks at 10 times and compare that to the 25-30 times of HDFCB for almost similar growth rates. I felt that market was extremely harsh with ICICI and the question I had to ask myself was "Will it go the PSU way or will they be able to fix" and if the answer is latter, it's a steal and the market will correct the anomaly soon and that's what has happened.

Tata Power and Praj Industries (Recommended Price on 22nd Feb Rs 59 / 80 ; CMP 70 / 91) :

These are theme based bets. The reforms in power sector and also the UDAY scheme of arrangement with state board should reform the sector better. Also, there is a major emphasis on the Ethanol blending and Praj is the only major structured player in the segment.

Singapore Stocks.
Singapore Banks (21st Feb UOB : $17.24 , CMP 19.64 | OCBC $7.98 , CMP $9.20) :

Singapore banks reporting increase in profits compared to the global peers. UOB spent close to $12M on buy backs last year.  Similar to ICICI, the first time I started liking was around the $20 levels, the same value as their NAV. So here you have one of the most conservative banks, who have spent $12M on buy backs, fundamentally still growing and available below book value. The stock has corrected more than 30% from the peak, offers a yield of 4% plus at $18 levels with the fundamentals still intact. I have seen similar situation in 2008 with some of the Singapore monopoly business like Straits times, Singtel offering 10% yield but the fundamentals weren't impacted due to the global financial crisis. I drew some parallel and thought it isn't 2008 and the company is still growing and available below NAV. Also they spent the most on buy backs. DBS reported 20% increase in net profits and the guidance is 7-8% growth for this year at an extremely attractive yield of 4%. The worst case scenario was increase in NPA from 0.9 to 1.3% if the oil drops to $20. So the choice was easy given the circumstances.

Keppel Infra ( 21st Feb recommended Price $0.485, CMP 0.50) :

This is an interesting business. The stock may not move much as it's more of a dividend play and the last few years have consistently given close to 7-8% yield. They have complete monopoly on the cylinder business, improving WTE and Newater business and couple of others. The merger with City Infra has further strengthened and offers 8% yield at that level. Singapore companies should be looked at flat revenues but the art part is identifying the par values so that they are attractive for the respective yields as most companies have limited growth opportunities. It provides almost 2% per quarter as divided yield

Fraser Hospitality Trust:

The company came out with an IPO for 0.88 cents in July 2014. They have so far out-performed the DPU projected during the IPO, both for the first year and the first quarter of this year. So with the fundamentals intact, the fear in market led its fall all the way to 0.72 cents with the yield increasing to 10%. As the numbers are better with a diversified portfolio and a not so high gearing, I felt it offers huge margin of safety.

Global Logistics Properties:

GLP is a very interesting company with the emphasis on state of the art technology for the logistics properties globally with diversified presence. It's a GIC owned company and the IPO happened at 1.96 in 2010 and went all the way up to 2.80. The reported net profits for 9 months of this year is 50% and the most recent quarter was 64%. They keep increasing lease space rapidly and in an important space of logistics. The valuations seemed extremely attractive considering the growth potential and backed by the management with huge financial capacity.

Is it time to be greedy?

I have been wanting to write about the markets and the valuations for the last couple of weeks. Co-incidentally I got an email about 8 timeless quotes from Warren Buffett and I thought using two of them would help to share my view of the current market correction.

• “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
• “Price is what you pay, value is what you get.”

Budget 2015 - Now :

I would like to rewind a bit, before I share my thoughts on current levels. In May 2014, I wrote about the importance of three words, Margin of Safety  as the markets were really euphoric post the BJP victory and the market was marching way ahead of the fundamentals. Same time last year, before the budget, my view, which was shared with many of my clients who had exposure to Indian equities and Mutual Funds was to exit India completely as the government had to present a transformational budget to sustain the huge valuations at Nifty 9000 levels. The budget happened to be a non-event for the markets, similar to the last few years and the market duly started its long overdue time and value wise correction, though it took few weeks post the budget.

In the last couple of years, on many occasions, market was celebrating every bad news with huge rallies, for the hopes of liquidity continuing. If we just go by the second quote of WB above, it was visible that the valuations were not sustainable, especially when the rally was driven by liquidity than fundamentals. It was just a question of when before markets correct itself to adjust to reality or pay the price for riding it higher with easy money. We even added Gold below 1150 levels exactly hoping for the current situation when the central banks couldn't control the markets once the tightening cycle begins.

The much required/expected correction started few weeks post the 2015 budget and reached 7800 levels from the high of 9100 in March and that's when I started to get interested again, which I shared here. The markets seemed to have factored in the Fed hike in November and were trading at higher levels by end of December. Suddenly storm hit the markets from day one of the new year and the ferocity of the fall took everyone by surprise. Being the results season and the AQR by the RBI which forced the banks (might require another blog on this) didn't help along with the sentiments in global markets which pushed the nifty to below 7000 levels.

Why Now and Why India :

As much as one believes in Efficient Market Hypothesis, market tends to prove everything wrong time and again. I don't think any single factor could be attributed to this massive sell off since the new year. May be, as Mr. Rajesh Nambiar, puts it, in his Nasscom 2016 welcome address, "The price of not knowing" is what I believe the reason for this panic. Not knowing the duration of access to cheaper funds or the potential future rate hikes along with the fall in commodities, led by Oil is what many believe are the reasons for this sharp fall. There is no single formula which works except buy when there is value and exit when there is irrational exuberance. As market often does, irrationality happens on both sides and I believe its currently on the downside.

The latest quarterly results were more or less in line with the expectations, till the PSU banks started to report their numbers following the revised RBI guidelines for bad loans. Ever since the 50 bps cut happened, RBI Governor has promised to look into the impediments which stops the banks from passing on the rate cuts and I believe the new norms for bad loans was part of that to get the system in sync with the policies. I hope and pray, the long overdue process for consolidation of PSU banks start along with this cleanup.

As per the two quotes of WB, there is huge fear on the street and even the compelling valuations haven't attracted much buying. Nifty has gone back to 2 years back levels, but look at the price of some the blue chips like HDFC and TCS, just to quote a few. The companies during this time have grown more than 30% compared to 2 years ago. If you had invested in March 2015, you would have waited two years for the earnings to catch up with the valuations. But, at these beaten down levels, where several stocks are trading at similar price levels compared to before but with increased earnings. You are getting an opportunity to accumulate blue chips at attractive valuations. Now, the crisis presents you an opportunity where companies like TCS, HDFC Bank will grow at the same rates, or even more, depending on the execution speed of Make in India and Digital India, but without having to wait for the valuations where you don't lose sleep over.

As referenced earlier in the Margin of Safety piece I wrote 2 years ago,

Stock	Feb 2014	Feb 2016
Deepak Fertilizers	106	145
HDFC Bank	667	988
Vardhman Textiles	358	758
NTPC	119	125

The markets might be back to 2014 levels, but the returns of the above mentioned stocks are still atrractive. The good news is there are many such attractive stocks available at current levels. This is a very healthy correction and I strongly believe it's that time to be greedy. For eg, IndusInd bank, which has been reporting close to 25-30% CAGR for the last 5 years is available at 23 times TTM. I also believe some of the rewards for UDAY and the restructuring on power sector will help turn around the sectors. Do you homework, stick to your circle of competence but don't miss the opportunity. Multibaggers in markets are made by investing at the peak fear and sit tight.

Following are some of the stocks I have added recently.

Stock	CMP ( 22nd Feb 2016)
TCS	2315
HDFC Bank	988
Bharat Bijlee	750
Balkrishna Industries	560
Havells	281
Tata Power	59
LNT	1150
Praj Industries	80
KVB	415
ICICI Bank	198
City Union Bank	84

Disclaimer : The usual caveat applies. :) Please do your own research. I believe in value investing and I get excited when the downside risk of 10% is extremely compelling to invest. The situation in Feb 2015 was the reverse, with the max upside potential of 10%.

Good Luck and Happy Investing.

India - Value Trap or Bargain Hunting

It has been a volatile few months for the global markets, triggered by the Fed's decision to defer the much anticipated rate hike . In hindsight, the post market reaction would have made them feel like they missed a great opportunity. The cycle has started again and it is likely they wouldn't miss it in December. Since Sep, most markets have recovered to an extent and as I write this, Dow and Nasdaq are just 2.5% away from their record highs. India, in the meantime, has been volatile and the rate cut didn't really convince the market. I always believe in keeping it simple and am getting excited to start looking into Indian stocks for the first time since Feb 2013.

Background:

• Clients portfolio didn't have Indian exposure since the election as I preferred the safer approach of diversified Asia portfolio since I didn't want to run the risk of NDA failure.
• Valuations were never comfortable to enter India, post the election due to the Modi premium and the investment continued through Asia funds as most funds were overweight India.
• My view at the beginning of this year was that we needed a transformational budget to take Nifty beyond 9000. It looked unlikely then and so it turned out in the eventual budget. Mm
• I felt the upside for the rest of the year is capped considering the steep valuations post the budget. The view was to exit equity funds in India and move to tax-free FDs at 9% than a potential risk of 20%, We might miss out on the 5% upside gains if the correction wasn't coming but it's better than risking the 20% loss.
• India has been included as part of the Mutual Fund portfolio since last month because of attractive valuations.

Why Now ?

• The single fundamental metric of Buffett's I firmly believe is "Be fearful when others are greedy" and the fear is probably the highest now in the last couple of years.
• Margin of Safety - I touched on this briefly here as to why it's an important criteria during the last couple of years. Now, we are at a stage where, for instance, a stock like ICICI is available at PEG ratio of 1. I don't remember when was the last time it was valued so low. We have so many mid and large caps corrected at least 30%
• There are different views on reforms, but the consensus is that it may be too little. I would take any progress irrespective of the rate than none and also the markets have corrected from 9100 levels to 7800 levels since March.
• RBI has done its part by cutting 50 basis points in Oct and even the earlier rate cuts weren't passed on to the economy yet. RBI Governor said this after the rate cut "While the Reserve Bank’s stance will continue to be accommodative, the focus of monetary action for the near term will shift to working with the government to ensure that impediments to banks passing on the bulk of the cumulative 125 basis points cut in the policy rate are removed". I believe it's just a question of time before the banks pass on most of the 125 basis points
• Considering the above, I feel the risk reward is in our favour at current levels. I always get excited if the stocks/index levels are extremely compelling at 5% lower than current levels and I think we are in that Zone now.

Some of the stocks added during the recent correction

• Indus Ind Bank
• HDFC
• HDFC Bank
• Exide Industries
• TCS
• ICICI Bank
• Havells
• Lupin
• Wockhardt
• AIA Engineering
• SBI
• Canara Bank

Some of the above were added because of the valuations and some are convictions based on the possible turn around.

One of my respected client said India is that "Value Trap", always seem attractive. I hope, by budget 2016, we feel it was more the phase of Bargain Hunting than value trap.

As a value investor, I must reiterate that these are attractive levels to enter. Having said that, December FOMC is a big risk for Emerging markets and a rate hike (likely) can see some immediate panic moves in Indian markets. The more prudent strategy would be to phase out entry over the next two months. It may not be a bad idea to wait out the FOMC completely before entering either. But the larger point is: from a valuation perspective, these stocks are attractive at the moment for a medium to long term investment. In case of further correction, post December FOMC, keep adequate buffer and be ready to add substantially more to the portfolio. 

These views are entirely personal and please do your own research before investing.

Good luck and happy investing.

How good is your financial plan - Wealth Management (Part-II)

"Building wealth is a marathon, not a sprint. Discipline is the key ingredient"

This is the 2nd part of the two part blog. In the first part, I covered the aspects of the risk management. We will look into the wealth management aspects in this post. 

We all aspire to retire early, but the reality is most surveys indicate that the majority fall well short of the requirement. We can get away without any risk management plans in place, if we are lucky, but no getting away from the future expenses like Kids education or Retirement. We all have plans in place , but more often than not, it will be one of those plans which would have lost relevance due to inflation within 10 years, leave alone servicing the retirement period of 25-30 years. We lack the same discipline when it comes to a retirement plan compared to paying off EMI for a property.

It's never too early to start planning, be it for Kid's education, Retirement or Enhancing your legacy. Let's look into the aspects that require some discipline so that our retirement life would be peaceful. It's always easier to stretch myself to earn more now or maximize my investment returns with smarter investments at 40 than having to stretch myself beyond 60, just because we haven't saved enough. 

Retirement Planning :

Simple arithmetic says :

Eg - Singapore

Monthly Requirement : $5,000  (@Retirement age)

Duration                      :  25 years 

Expected inflation       : 3% 

investment return        : 5%, 

Corpus Rquired           : $1.17M

India :

Monthly Requirement : Rs 200,000 (@Retirement age) 

Duration                      :  25 years 

Expected inflation       : 7% 

investment return        : 10%, 

Corpus Rquired           : $4.2 Crores

There are huge advantages of starting early and making the money work smarter. Person who starts at 30 years, requires to set $996 and $2,778 per month respectively if your investment returns are 6% and 0%, The same goes up by 80% if you start at 40. Which is easier? Save $1,000, spend time and look to earn investment returns of 6% or increase the savings to $2.800 per month? For more details on the actual amount for different ages and returns, do look here

I believe in focusing on two options for retirement planning. One is steady passive income, like rentals, dividends, annuities which are adjusted to inflation and the second part is corpus. Sometimes, we might have passive income which will be more than adequate, but it may not help in case of any unforeseen major expenses post retirement. It's difficult to have such lump sum corpus, but ideally at least work towards 50-50. So plan for $500K at least in lump sum if your requirement is $1M and the passive income could provide $2,500 per month.

SRS is definitely a compelling option for those who are working in Singapore. For more details do check here

So what are you waiting for? Do the calculation on your needs and act on it immediately. Longer the wait, higher the amount you need to set aside.

Kid's education :

I don't think the concept of saving for kid's education even existed during my studying days. We all used to take a loan for overseas education or even for NIIT fees 20 years ago :), spend the first decade of your career trying to clear off the loans and then think about savings only in late 30s. Times have changed and also the expectations of the kids. Earlier you start planning for the same, lower the amount you need to set aside per month.

Approximate current cost of tertiary education,

$50,000 (Singapore)

$200-300K (For US/UK)

India isn't getting any cheaper compared to 10 years ago.

Potential Inflation : 6%

Start early so the power of compounding could work in your favour.

Emergency Savings :

This is often overlooked because we don't expect things to go wrong. We are living in an era, where in most places, 10 years of service in an organization creates huge insecurity than loyalty. It's extremely important to set aside at least 18 months of your monthly expenses in liquid assets, as that would give you the much required breathing space, in case you prefer to take a sabbatical or a sudden job loss. It not only provides peace of mind but could be a good beginning for retirement corpus, if all goes fine.

Simple rules for enhancing your investment returns

• As a starter, please use the maximum investment possible with tax rebates, as there is no instrument which provides better and guaranteed returns than tax savings, globally. 
• Do not get into investment which you aren't much aware of.
• Diversify your portfolio as much as possible, across asset class and currencies, so no single failure sets you back by few years.
• It's extremely important to sit with your financial consultant and quantify your various financial needs. Just knowing the numbers would help us understand the gaps and keep reminding us that we need to do something about it. 

Should you have any queries, please feel free to reach me.

Cheers

+65 8113 3272